The new mood
Nathan Miglani of Squirrel South Island tracks the recovery – and restraint – of the Christchurch property market.
The year began with real momentum. Across Otautahi Christchurch, agents, banks and brokers all felt it. The first quarter was one of the strongest in recent memory and, for us, both March and April were record months. That confidence had been building since late last year, when the first genuine signs of recovery started to appear.
Since then, the mood has become more measured. First-home buyers are still active, but they are more cautious than they were just a few months ago. Job security, cost of living pressure and general uncertainty have a way of slowing decision-making, especially for buyers entering the market for the first time. That softer sentiment showed up in May, with residential activity sitting around 15 per cent below the same time last year. My read is that this is less about a lack of demand and more about confidence being knocked back from global instability and higher fuel prices.
What is interesting is that the slowdown is not universal. Commercial and development activity continues to build, particularly through inner-city suburbs such as Merivale, St Albans and Papanui, while Selwyn, especially Darfield, is showing strong growth. North Canterbury also remains attractive in terms of affordability. In other words, this is not a market in retreat. It's a market becoming more selective, with some areas pressing ahead while others pause and reassess.
That caution is likely to stay with us for a while. On 26 May, the Reserve Bank held the OCR at 2.25 per cent, but made it clear that future increases may come sooner and go higher than previously projected, as economic confidence remains stagnant across multiple major sectors. For borrowers, that means the next phase of the market will reward planning over urgency. We are already seeing that in our own work, with a significant share of activity now focused on restructuring lending and helping self- employed clients understand which banking options will best support their next move.
The best thing you can do is take good, informed advice about your personal financial situation, and what better place to do that than with our award-winning team.
